Network · Finance model
Finance model: the Live P&L Bridge, model v1
The Revised Base as a registered model, not a narrative: every input prints with its evidence label, and every total is computed from those inputs at this read. The wedge bills less than its founder subsidy costs at conservative attach — that is the finding, printed, not buried. Model version v1, dated 2026-11-13.
The assumption table (each input with its evidence label)
- Addressable population — 1,050 verified servers (S)
Sep 2026, via Lane 10 — the flagship paid marketplace census (free and paid combined); the verified population used in Base - Inferred population slice — about 7,800 servers — sensitivity only, never Base (I)
Lane 6, inferred from registry inputs; used only in the sensitivity block below - The <5% monetized figure — NOT USED / UNVERIFIED (NOT USED / UNVERIFIED)
Lane 10 kill — excluded from all arithmetic in this model - Paying servers ramp (end of month) — 2026-12: 0 · 2027-06: 5 · 2027-12: 15 · 2028-06: 30 · 2028-12: 55 · 2029-06: 80 · 2029-09: 100 — linear between anchors, 34 billing months (Dec 2026 to Sep 2029) (I)
Lane 11 section A — scenario arithmetic; the plateau is 9.5 percent of the verified population paying by month 34, and the ramp is void if the Lane 10 gates fail - Namespace / Pro mix — 80% namespace / 20% Pro (ASSUMPTION)
Lane 11 section A — no claimed cohort exists to measure a mix from - Publisher prices — namespace $10/mo, Pro $49/mo (blended $17.80/mo) (DECIDED D1)
PROGRAM.md DECISIONS D1, decided 2026-11-11 (P-record) - Founder subsidy — first 10 slots per new line pay $0 every month; cap 3 features per account (P-record)
PROGRAM.md DECISIONS (D1 and the Nov 11 founder ruling) — modelled per line: billed per line = max(0, units − 10) × price - Verdict API — $0.02/call; $0 through Dec 2027; from Jan 2028, 5,000 calls/mo growing 750/mo to 20,000/mo (DECIDED D1 (price) / I (volume))
Price DECIDED D1 (P-record); volume Lane 11 section A (I) — a small share of a tiny measured pool, from 2028 only - 7.1 credit CAC — $1 per template completion, cap $5 per account; 150 modelled external completions; expected about $150, max exposure $750 (DECIDED D5 / I)
Credit DECIDED D5 (P-record, PROGRAM.md); the 150 modelled external completions are Lane 11 section A (I), tied to the paying ramp; 7.1 earns no revenue - Transaction / escrow take — $0 in Base; the 0.9% take prints only as the option multiplier: $9,000 per $1M routed GMV, never a forecast line (DECIDED D3)
Take rate DECIDED D3 (P-record); Lane 10 kill honoured — no transaction revenue in Base in any year - Rail arming — a rail arms by 2026-12-31 — currently false: both legs dark (ASSUMPTION)
Lane 11 section A — the arming deadline is Lane 10's; if the deadline passes dark, every wedge dollar shifts +12 months and the timing benefit vanishes - Overlap haircut — −$5,000 (ASSUMPTION)
Lane 11 section A — wedge accounts that would also appear in the pool-share lines; taking it out is what keeps the two populations from double-counting - Original Base (36 months, Oct 2026 to Sep 2029) — gross $691,448 / net $341,756 (P-record)
A2ALLY-PNL-36MO.md — the comparison base, carried unchanged - Costs — original P&L cost curves unchanged; no new cost curve (ASSUMPTION)
A2ALLY-PNL-36MO.md cost curves carried unchanged — this model invents no new cost curve
The Revised Base, computed from the inputs above
- Server-months on the ramp — 1,190
- List-price value — $21,182
- Billed after founder-free units — $9,269.33 (per line: billed = max(0, units − 10) × price)
- Founder subsidy — $11,912.67, printed as CAC, never netted from gross (list minus billed)
- Verdict revenue — $5,250 on 262,500 calls
- 7.1 credit CAC — expected $150, max exposure $750
- Overlap haircut — $5,000 taken out
- Wedge increment over the original Base — $9,519.33 (billed plus verdicts minus the haircut)
- Original Base gross — $691,448 · Revised Base gross — $700,967.33
- Original Base net — $341,756 · Revised net if CAC is expensed — $338,612.66. Revised Base net is about flat against the original net, stated honestly: the wedge adds its gross at no new cost curve, and if the CAC-presented subsidy (the founder subsidy plus the 7.1 credit max exposure) is expensed in period, the net lands just below the original; the printed range in the memo is about $338k to $342k.
- First paying month — original 2027-10; revised 2027-03 to 2027-04, conditional on a rail arming by 2026-12-31; otherwise 2027-10, unchanged
- First $1k month — 2028-01, unchanged
Sensitivity — never Base
Sensitivity, labelled never-Base: if the addressable population is the inferred slice and the same claim and pay rates hold, the paying plateau scales to about 300 servers and wedge billed rises to roughly $26k to $45k over the horizon, with the founder subsidy fixed at the Base figure — leverage improves precisely because the free cohort does not scale. Revised Base gross reaches about $720k to $735k. Even this sensitivity does not change the verdict: pool revenue in the original Base still dominates by an order of magnitude. Plateau about 300 paying servers on the inferred population of 7,800; wedge billed about $26,000 to $45,000; Revised Base gross about $720,000 to $735,000; founder subsidy $11,912.67, fixed.
Kills printed on this model
- Additive top-3 modelling killed: 1.2 is inside 6.1 and 7.1 earns nothing directly, so three additive revenue lines would double-count 1.2 and invent revenue for 7.1.
- Wedge-dominant Base killed (11.4): a wedge-dominant Base requires more than 1,000 paying publishers, for which no sourced evidence exists.
- Founder subsidy netted silently killed: the subsidy prints as an explicit CAC line in every financial surface, never netted from gross.
- a2ally + Rightshold pool addition killed: the populations stay in separate columns with an explicit overlap haircut only; a combined pool figure is never printed.
Honest scope
Honest scope: this is step 1 of 3 of the Live P&L Bridge — the model document. Live actuals vs model (step 2, including the 11.2 CAC ledger actuals) and gate-linked reversion (step 3) are not built yet, and nothing on this surface claims they are.
- Live actuals vs model (step 2, including the 11.2 CAC ledger actuals) — not built yet
- Gate-linked reversion (step 3) — not built yet
The methodology
Finance model methodology: this document is scenario arithmetic, not a prediction. The paying-servers ramp is linear between its printed anchors over 34 billing months (Dec 2026 to Sep 2029). Each month, paying servers split 80 percent namespace and 20 percent Pro; list-price value is namespace units times $10 plus Pro units times $49; billed per line is max(0, units minus 10) times that line's price, because the first 10 slots per new line pay $0; founder subsidy is list minus billed and prints as CAC, never netted from gross. The verdict line is $0 through Dec 2027, then 5,000 calls in Jan 2028 growing 750 calls per month to a 20,000 per month cap at $0.02 per call. The Revised Base keeps the original Base and the wedge in separate columns and combines them only as the original gross plus the wedge billed amount plus verdict revenue minus the $5,000 overlap haircut. Every total on this surface is computed in code from the printed inputs at read time.
The version rule
Version rule: assumption changes ship as a new model version with a changelog — never a silent edit. The text and inputs of a published model version never change; a future change ships as a new version (v2, then v3) with a changelog entry, and figures keep the model version they were computed under (the 9.1 methodology pattern).
Changelog
- v1 (2026-11-13) — Initial publication: the Lane 11 section A assumption table as versioned data with an evidence label beside every input, the section B Revised Base computed from those inputs, and the section C sensitivity printed labelled never-Base.
The limits
Limits, stated plainly: this surface is public and keyless and publishes a model only — no account, tenant or contact data, and no live actuals. Step 1 registers the model; it does not measure the platform against it. The inferred-population figures print only in the sensitivity block, labelled never-Base. The escrow take prints only as an option multiplier, never as a revenue line. A combined a2ally and Rightshold pool figure is never printed: the populations stay in separate columns with the overlap haircut only.
Callable surfaces
- GET /v1/finance-model (free, no key) — this model document: the versioned Lane 11 section A assumption table with an evidence label beside every input, the section B Revised Base table computed from those inputs, the section C sensitivity labelled never-Base, the kills, the changelog and the version rule (spec a2ally-finance-model-v1)
- GET /finance-model (page) and GET /finance-model.md — the human-readable twin of the model document
Machine-readable model: GET /v1/finance-model · Pricing: /pricing. Markdown twin: /finance-model.md.
